Quant Memo

Pulse

What’s likely to happen, from prediction market odds (finance, crypto, and macro). Sentiment implied by Polymarket and Kalshi (not investment advice).

Data is illustrative. Replace with live API when ready.

Finance

Rates, equity levels, recession, and volatility.

Crypto

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and broad crypto market outcomes.

  • Bitcoin above $100k before end of 2025?

    48%
    Polymarket · 2025-02-20

    Resolves: 2025-12-31

    View on Polymarket
  • Ethereum above $4,000 in 2025?

    41%
    Polymarket · 2025-02-20

    Resolves: 2025-12-31

    View on Polymarket
  • SEC approves spot Bitcoin ETF (already occurred; placeholder)?

    99%
    Polymarket · 2025-01-10

    Resolves: 2025-01-10

    View on Polymarket
  • Total crypto market cap above $2T at any point in 2025?

    55%
    Polymarket · 2025-02-19

    Resolves: 2025-12-31

    View on Polymarket

Macro

CPI, unemployment, oil, dollar: factors that move markets.

  • US CPI year-over-year under 3% by June 2025?

    52%
    Kalshi · 2025-02-20

    Resolves: 2025-06-30

    View on Kalshi
  • US unemployment rate above 4.5% by Dec 2025?

    38%
    Kalshi · 2025-02-19

    Resolves: 2025-12-31

    View on Kalshi
  • WTI crude above $80 at end of Q2 2025?

    44%
    Polymarket · 2025-02-20

    Resolves: 2025-06-30

    View on Polymarket
  • DXY (dollar index) above 105 on June 30, 2025?

    35%
    Kalshi · 2025-02-18

    Resolves: 2025-06-30

    View on Kalshi

Data & disclaimers

Odds are from Polymarket and Kalshi and are shown for context only. They are not forecasts or advice. Macro and finance outcomes affect stock and crypto markets; use this as one input among many. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.